Deb, the 2 main offenders, as usual, are the Mail and Telegraph:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2302122/Just-sickness-benefit-truly-ill-work-Almost-million-drop-benefits-claim-avoid-new-test.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9963012/900000-choose-to-come-off-sickness-benefit-ahead-of-tests.htmlThe first basic mistake (which is repeated by Grant Shapps) is that they are saying these people are choosing to come off "incapacity benefit". The figures relate to new ESA claims where people are on the assessment rate (which is the same amount as JSA so there is no financial incentive there) and are not receiving full ESA.
To say these people are choosing to come off "incapacity benefit" is a dangerous assertion as people on IB are on it for long term conditions, and the inference here is that large numbers have claimed over the long term when they know they are not genuine. New ESA claims will have some long term conditions, but obviously will have many short term conditions which people will recover from.
The actual IB figures show that 566,800 assessments had been completed and 27% had gone to the Support Group, 41% to the WRAG and 32% were "fit for work". A further 36,900 assessments had not been completed, of which 19,700 were closed before assessment:
http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/workingage/index.php?page=esa_ibrThe ESA figures show that 1,437,600 ESA assessments have been completed with 16% put into the Support group, 26% into the WRAG and 58% "fit for work".
The figures show that 99,500 assessments were still in progress and 878,300 claims were closed before assessment.
http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/workingage/index.php?page=esa_wcaOn page 2 of the pdf, the DWP acknowledge that:
" by excluding the effect of appeals this is likely to underestimate the proportion of claimants who will eventually be awarded the benefit. "
Re closed claims, on page 3 of the pdf, the DWP acknowledge that:
“An important reason why ESA claims in this sample were withdrawn or closed before they were fully assessed was because the person recovered and either returned to work, or claimed a benefit more appropriate to their situation.”
The source of this is this research:
http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/rports2011-2012/rrep762.pdfTables on page 6 and 7 show what happened to people after closing their claim.
The other important thing that needs to be recognised is that the latest figures show that 82% of initial assessments are not being done within the 13 weeks, which means that people will have even longer to recover before being assessed, thus giving rise to more cases being withdrawn for that reason. Those figures were confirmed by Mark Hoban here:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130304/text/130304w0004.htm#1303058000602 
